The other day I was watching this documentary on TV about the internet revolution. The documentary seemed dated and had nothing ‘revolutionary’ to talk about. But it got me thinking on the amount of content on the internet in all shapes and forms. There is so much content out there that the mind boggles and I am slowly migrating away from the internet to the more manageable print media. But even with all this extra content I maybe better informed, I am none the wiser. I don’t know where is the next big idea going to come from, where or when is the next religion going to come or which company is going to be the largest/biggest in the next 10 years. What countries are going to be the top three or five in the world. Yes India, China and US will be there, but crucially where will the next Japan come from. Which country will punch many times above its size ?

In my economics class I was taught about lead and lag indicators and I have found them to be quite fascinating. The lag indicators are easier to identify – global warming is to me primarily a lag indicator and can be also used as a lead indicator. Another lag indicator is the G20 grouping which represents the slow decline of power of G8. Maybe a lead indicator of G20 was when  years ago Goldman Sachs grouped BRICS together. I certainly missed that and as I write this today I am struggling to identify the lead indicators in the world today. Even if I was to put aside the bigger questions and ask the more ‘mundane’ questions like – when will the Security council be expanded and who will be part of the new grouping, what will Afghanistan be like 5 years from now or will I still be blogging 10 years from now ?

Sometimes the obvious answer is not the right answer. Who would have thought that even five years ago that by 2010, the world would have more or less forgotten Iraq and moved onto bigger and better things. What little was left of Iraq memory was wiped out by the recession or by the upsurge of violence in Afghanistan. No one remembers that the war was fought on lies and is probably the most expensive settling of scores that the world has ever seen. Yet the old adage , to the victor go the spoils, continues. One architect of the war has retired to his ranch probably trying to be born again into someone else. The other who is now an ambassador of inter-faith peace, middle east peace, global warming resolution, advisor to big corporates and a star guest speaker, appeared before a parliament inquiry to defend his decision to go to war over Iraq.Everyone now has a different fish to fry. Someone is after Iran, others are after China, someone thinks that Russian is the new Satan. Two wars later the original Satan , Osama Bin Laden, is still around and is in the middle of a PR transformation to a global warming campaigner !

In 2o2o, who will the biggest devil, who will be the biggest sheriff and more importantly what will they be fighting about ?

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