Usually I am pretty optimistic about the new year and also full of opinions on what is going to happen in the next year. It ofcourse never turns out that way (for example – I can sadly can’t claim to predict the global financial crisis on the cover of my book) but since when has that stopped me from stating my opinion. This year-end has been different. For once I am unable to clearly see what is going to happen (even if it is not going to happen) and even 3 weeks into the new year hasn’t dispelled that smog. The world in my opinion is in that unsettled mood just like how it is before the monsoons start to rain down. Everyone knows it is coming, but don’t when and how much.
In so many ways, 2012 is such an exciting year. It is a year of changes with the US presidential elections, Russian elections, Chinese leadership changes, state elections in India among other things and these are the changes that we know. I already am looking out into what these countries will be like if my favourite (or in some cases the only candidate wins), what will it mean for their neighbours and the world.
But my biggest area of confusion continues to be Europe. I continue to remain confused by the European economic model in its present and suggest future form. Unfortunately, as i live in London half of the news is about Europe and so I can’t even escape it and sometimes it is so bad or pointless that I find myself yearning for some caste equations from UP politics. Europe (as in EU) is increasingly becoming a beautiful museum with high walls and no one quite gets it. The governments somehow seem to think that there is a way out of this but even if there is one, there is the orginal demographic time bomb which even Germany can’t fund. How does this beautiful, old continent see itself even 10 years from now? It has already outsourced its defence to the US, most of the manufacturing to China and now it has lost the argument on its welfare model. Its like a rich, well dressed uncle who can’t pay for the extended workforce anymore and is starting to sell his gold cutlery to sustain his lifestyle. There was a time when Europe (apart from US and Japan) was the only game in town and investors had nowhere to go but now they do as other countries get their act together and are on the right side of demography.
My other area of confusion is India and it pertains to the political climate. I am not sure where is the change going to come from. Both the leading parties are what the tea party would call as the Washington type. They are entrenched in the power politics of Delhi and can’t see life beyond blaming each other. There isn’t sufficient reason for them to change, they are not enough new leaders or new ideas coming through. The non aligned parties are few and mostly confined to the state level. For all my readings of the Delhi politics I don’t see a way out. There is ofcourse the view that I sometimes ignore is that change is incremental and slow and seen from that angle the politics in India is following that slow change route.
But one part that is shining bright is the Chinese economic miracle. Every year, commentators tot out risks to the miracle (ie farmers revolts, middle class revolts, Tibetan revolts etc) and then at the year-end all the newspapers bring forward their projections for when China will overtake the US. I think I can safely predict that the leadership handover will be smooth, without much fuss and the new leadership will do even more to develop China in a harmonious way.
Harmony is something the world will need this year. Lets please not outsource that to China too.
