As I look back at the events of the last week the title of this post, which takes its name from the Reuters blog on Pakistan, comes to mind again and again. When Osama was killed last week my first thoughts were very cynical on what this will achieve and where does Pakistan and the world go from here. Having had a week of reflection and as I watch Gillani make a speech to the Pakistani parliament, I am still mildly cynical and even more worried about the state of affairs of Pakistan.
It is clear to me that Osama and to an extent Al-Qaeda is one of the last remaining legacies of the cold war. This was a time when all sorts of actions were condoned in the name of fighting communism and as long the Soviets were kept at bay everything seemed justified. Which is not to say that the Soviets were holy cows. They weren’t, but they also paid the price by seeing a most spectacular disintegration of their country and a fall from grace from the top table of two to one of the top 10 countries in the world. They now sit on the same table with other emerging powers of which two (India and China) used to Soviet aid.
The Americans on the other hand emerged victorious and got away lightly in comparison and they haven’t really had to account for their activates in Afghanistan among other things. It also helps that the American voters have at best a short term memory on foreign affairs and at worst don’t care at all. I say this because the American voters are the only group that can keep the American government accountable in its unipolar world and if the voters don’t care or don’t know then the world lives on the mercy of the US president. It becomes easy for the US president to sway his electorate while the world has little control over him and yet bears sometimes a disproportionate impact of US actions. So Osama is seen in context of 9/11 but no one talks about his role in throwing the Soviets out and the role of the Americans in funding him and of the Saudis and Pakistanis in nurturing him. Someone like Osama shouldn’t have been created and when created, shouldn’t have been left to fester in the post-Soviet Taliban government.
Yes he has now been killed, but only after he has been allowed to do the damage over these many years and the US continues to fight a full fledged resistance in Afghanistan. The killing themselves has come at an additional cost and also some potential benefits. The cost and benefits are mostly cantered around Pakistan.
There are conflicting reports on how the US was allowed to get into mainland Pakistan. Some say that the Pakistani radars were jammed by the US military, the other say that the army can not afford to have its radars running 24 hours on its western front due to maintenance costs and some others say that Pakistani jets had the US helicopters in their sights but were asked to abort at the last minute. Either ways it reflects a sorry state of affairs of the army which has been the pride and joy of Pakistan and gives that nation a sense of respectability on the outside when it is increasingly hollowing out inside. The fact that it happened next to the army cantonment only adds to their misery. It is like in his death, Osama has given a one last kick to his former masters.
The killing was also done inside a sovereign country. I am not an expert on international law, but this doesn’t sounds to me an Afghanistan, Libya or even an Iraq. This is ostensibly an ally in the war on terror and has been for some decades now ! While I find it difficult to find fault in America’s actions, except perhaps taking Osama alive, I think there is a cost to this operation. There is always a cost, and in this case it will play out in the years to come. To my mind this cost can take various forms – it can be that the government in Pakistan collapses and the army which has already been discredited disintegrates and takes sides between the jihadis and the liberals. It could be that the Pakistani government is driven more into the hands of China (note its statement in the support of Pakistan) and cedes more land and more control to it. The cost could also be in American assets and it may also prolong the war in Afghanistan.
There can also be some benefits as the civil society in Pakistan may finally muster up the courage to take on the army and intelligence services. I doubt this will happen now when it didn’t happen post-Bangladesh war or post AQ Khan, but if it does then it will be good unintended benefit of the operation. This has been said many times before and I’ll say it again – Pakistan again stands at a crossroad and I hope for its sake and for the sake of the rest of the world it takes the right path to becoming a progressive, modern nation.
Will it take the right path that I want it to take ? I don’t think so. The vested interests (including the politicians and the army) run too deep and they may again strike a deal to keep themselves in power in the name of stability. Although it may also take the middle path of doing a bit of both.
